Weekly Outlook on Crude Oil - 24 November 2023

The upcoming virtual meeting of OPEC+ on November 30 is drawing significant attention from the oil market, with discussions centering on potential production cuts. WTI crude oil, priced at $76.50 on Friday, reflects the uncertainty as the group considers maintaining its current output cut of 1 million barrels per day into the next year.

Recent developments include an unexpected 8.7 million barrel surge in US crude inventories, in stark contrast to the predicted 0.9 million barrel rise. This unexpected increase adds complexity to OPEC+'s decision-making process, with considerations of further output reductions on the table.

 The market is also closely monitoring China’s economic stimulus plans, particularly focused on real estate firms like Country Garden Holdings. With China playing a crucial role as an oil consumer, any stimulus measures could counteract the downward pressure on WTI prices.
 

On the NYMEX exchange, WTI crude oil prices are holding a support around $ 72, while on the upside resistance around $82 mark. 

On the domestic front, Daily Crude oil prices formed Bullish Harami Candlestick pattern, after made a low at 6000 on 16th Nov session. Thereafter, we witnessed pullback move in the counter towards 6500 levels. While, now prices are hovering around 6400 to 6350 levels on Friday session. However, price has been moving below 200-days EMA with negative crossover in the RSI. On the downside, the support at around 6000 levels followed by 5870 while, resistance at 6680 and 6800 levels for the coming days. 

Hence, traders are advised to focus on OPEC meeting and U.S. PMI data along with the technical levels as these numbers could have a notable impact on the oil prices. 

Important Key Levels:

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