Short positions by FII’s restricting index upmove

Nifty started trading for the week marginally positive. It recovered from the support zone of 19300-19250 and rallied higher towards 19360 during the day. However, it gave up some of the gains towards the end and closed the day just above 19300 with marginal gains.

The index continued to consolidate in a range while the stock specific momentum continued as the broader market momentum is positive. In last one month, lack of FIIs buying in the cash segment and formation of short positions by them in the index futures segment has restricted the up-move in key indices. The data still continues to be negative as there are no signs of short covering yet. FII’s have about 60 percent of the positions on the short side and since we have entered the monthly expiry week, it will be crucial to see whether they cover their shorts towards expiry or rollover the positions. In the option segment, decent open interest is there in 19300 put followed by 19200 strike, while call writers seems to have sold options of 19400 and 19500 strikes. Technically, the index is trading in a channel which seems to be a corrective phase within a broader uptrend. The support is placed around 19250 followed by 19200 and then at 19000. A move below 19250 could lead to a continuation of the down-move towards the lower support end. On the flipside, 19400 and 19500 are seen as immediate resistance on pullback moves, and it needs to surpass the later resistance for a resumption of the uptrend. Until we see a breakout, traders should look to trade with a stock specific approach.