Weekly Outlook- Crude Oil 07 March 2024

Oil prices hold steady amid positive Chinese trade data

Oil prices remained stable on Thursday, maintaining gains from the previous day's trading session. The market was buoyed by encouraging Chinese trade figures and a report from the U.S. indicating a smaller-than-anticipated increase in crude inventories alongside substantial draws in fuel stocks. However, the optimism was tempered by concerns that potential cuts to U.S. interest rates might be postponed, which acted as a dampener on further price increases.

China's refined product exports for January and February saw a significant decline of 30.6% compared to the previous year, leading to a reduction in global supply levels. This decrease in exports, combined with the positive trade data, hints at a potential turnaround in global trade dynamics, providing a welcome signal for policymakers navigating a fragile economic recovery.

The technical outlook on crude oil suggests a somewhat stable trend, supported by recent positive developments such as upbeat Chinese trade data and a smaller-than-expected rise in U.S. crude inventories. However, the potential delay in U.S. interest rate cuts could cap further gains in the near term.

From a technical perspective, crude oil prices may continue to trade within a range, with key support levels likely to be around recent lows, while resistance levels could be tested if bullish momentum prevails. Traders may closely monitor global events, U.S. inventories data with price momentum to gauge potential entry and exit points. On the downside, the key support level is at 6300 & 6150 while resistance around 6700 levels.

Overall, while short-term fluctuations are possible, the broader technical outlook for crude oil remains influenced by factors such as supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical tensions, and macroeconomic trends.

Important Key Levels: