Weekly Outlook on Copper - 14 Nov 2022

Copper prices extended their gains for a week with a 2.2% upside move from the prior week's close. The prices were trading around the 700 mark on Friday's session, holding 1.8% intraday gains followed by positive global cues. The largest copper miner, Codelco, will extend maintenance work at its Chuquicamata smelter to 135 days from a 90-days stoppage, updated by Reuters.

The global copper market is expected to see a deficit of about 3,25,000 tonnes this year and a surplus of 1,55,000 tonnes in 2023. China Nonferrous Metals News reported on Wednesday that top copper producers are urging the government to mine more of the metal, at home and abroad, as concerns grow about disruptions to global supplies.  

                                                           Weekly outlook on COPPER

LME copper also witnessed a sharp recovery from the prior week's close, adding 4% gains over a week and traded near 8440 levels on Friday's session. The prices have been high at 8472 since August22 and moved above the prior swing highs. On a weekly chart, it has formed like a rounding bottom pattern and closed in a bullish Marubozu candle.  However, the price has also tested a 38.2% Retracement. That could be an immediate hurdle for the counter. On the lower side, the price may have support around 8120/8000 levels, while on the upside, resistance is at 8740/9000 levels. 

On the daily timeframe, MCX copper has confirmed a Triangle pattern breakout that suggests further bullish move can be extended in the counter. Moreover, the price has shifted above 200-days EMA, indicating bullish momentum for the short to medium term.  As seen on the chart, the price moved above the Ichimoku Cloud pattern and the Chikou Span line had shown strength while Kijunsen line had acted as strong support zone for the counter, signaling that the rally could be continued in copper with good participation levels.  

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is seen above the 60 mark on the daily scale, confirming that the bulls are in action and prices may sustain in an uptrend with strong support hands. Rising volume activities are also indicating good participation and strength among the traders. An indicator MACD is witnessing positive crossover that support the bullish trend for the near term. Hence, we are expecting bullish momentum in copper for the coming days. So traders are advised to look for buying on dips. Any correction in prices to 692-690 could lead to a buying opportunity for the short term. On the downside, the copper has strong support at 672/660 levels while the resistance zone is at 715/730 levels.

MCX Copper performance of last three months:

Important Key Levels: