Nifty Outlook - 4 Oct-2022

The SGX Nifty was hinting at a gap down opening post the overnight correction seen in the global markets. However, the index once again shrugged off the global cues and opened on a flat note. Nifty traded in a narrow range for initial couple of hours, but it then corrected in last part and ended the day below 16900 with a loss of over a percent.

Nifty Today:

Our markets witnessed a sharp pullback last Friday which was mainly because of oversold set-ups on the hourly charts. As the oversold readings got relieved, the indices resumed their short term downtrend in today’s session. The Bank Nifty index underperformed and showed initial signs of weakness to end the day around the 38000 mark. In terms of Elliott Wave analysis, the Nifty index has shown signs of an ‘Impulsive’ down move from the recent high of 18100 which is a five wave structure. Friday’s pullback towards 17150-200 range was the fourth wave pullback which completed 38.2 percent retracement and it started the fifth wave down. This down move should breach last week’s low and form a lower low to complete this five wave structure. Once the index completes this structure, then a larger pullback move within a downtrend could be seen which would then retrace the recent corrective phase. Hence, as of now the trend continues to remain negative and traders should watch out for a new swing low where the market could then try to form a short term support. 

Weak global markets weighing negatively on our markets too

That could happen in the range of 16600-16500 for Nifty and around 200 DEMA in Bank Nifty which is at 36840. Hence, traders are advised to stay cautious for now and look for reversal signals around the above mentioned support zone.

Nifty & Bank Nifty Levels: