Nifty Outlook - 30 Sep-2022

On the back of positive cues from the global bourses, our markets started the expiry day on a positive note. However, the index witnessed selling pressure at higher levels and corrected from a high of over 17000 to sneak below the 16800 mark. The index finally ended the volatile session above 16800 with a loss of about a quarter of a percent.

Nifty Today:

Our markets shrugged off the positive cues from the global markets and continued to correct with higher intraday volatility on the monthly expiry day. The short term trend continues to be negative as the index continues its downmove, however, the momentum readings on the lower time frame charts have approached their oversold territory which indicates a possibility of a pullback move within this downtrend. There have been instances where the market has continued the downtrend even in oversold set ups, but the market sentiment now seems to have reached some extreme pessimism which usually triggers a contra move. Traders should watch out for the immediate resistance around the 16950-17000 range as the hourly chart indicates a channel with the higher end seen at this range. It also coincides with the hourly ’20EMA’ resistance. If the index manages to break this hurdle, then it could see a retracement pullback where it would attempt to retrace 23.6 percent to 38.2 percent of the recent downmove. On the flipside, until the index surpasses the above resistance, the downmove could continue inspite of oversold set-ups on lower time frame charts. The Bank Nifty index which has corrected sharply in last few sessions too has oversold momentum setups on the hourly charts. 

Markets shrugged off global cues and ended expiry day on a negative note

The U.S. Bond yields and the Dollar Index have cooled off in Wednesday’s session which led to a relief rally in the global equity markets. However, it is too early to call it a top and it seems to be just a correction within an uptrend which could provide much required pullback move in equities. So until we get a confirmation on reversal, equity markets would continue to see a ‘Sell on Rise’ approach and once the oversold setups are relieved, they would resume the downtrend again.

Nifty & Bank Nifty Levels: