Market Outlook for 29 February 2024

Nifty started the ahead of the expiry on a flat note, but it witnessed correction throughout the day. The intraday pullbacks witnessed selling pressure and the index breached the 22000 mark and ended well below it with a loss of over a percent.

Nifty Today:

In last few weeks, the benchmark has been consolidating in a range where we have seen buying interest on declines towards the 40 DEMA support, while there has been lack of follow up buying at new highs and selling pressure has been seen in 22200-22300 range. Ahead of the February series expiry, Nifty has ended just around the 20 DEMA which is around 21950. However, there are certain divergences seen where the recent new high in the Nifty has not been confirmed with a new high in the Midcap index, indicating selling pressure in the broader markets. Also, the RSI on the midcap index have seen a negative divergence with the price which usually hints at possibility of a corrective phase.

Ahead of the expiry, we witnessed consistent writing in call options which too is not a positive sign. The RSI oscillator on the daily chart has also given a negative crossover and hence, the data hints at a corrective phase and hence, one should keep a cautious approach in the market. Now, the immediate support would be around the 40 DEMA which has acted as a savior in the recent declines. This average support is placed around 21730 and thus would be seen as a make or break level for the near term. On the higher side, 22200-22300 would continue to act as the resistance zone. INDIA VIX too is on the verge of a breakout above 17 and traders should keep a close watch on the same.

                                                  Market corrects ahead of the expiry day 

The broader markets have seen a sharp correction due to sell-off in the midcap and the small cap stocks. In the Nifty Midcap100 index, the 40 DEMA has been a support on declines in last few months which is around 47800. A close below this could lead to a deeper price wise corrective phase in this segment and thus traders should keep a close tab on the same.

Nifty, Bank Nifty Levels and  FINNIFTY Levels: